South Africa’s agriculture sector is heading into a critical weather transition period, with concerns growing over a possible shift toward El Niño conditions that could disrupt production in the winter 2026/27 season.
El Niño brings extreme weather patterns, including droughts, heatwaves, and erratic rainfall, all of which affect food production, commodity prices, and agricultural input costs.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has placed the probability of an El Niño event occurring between June and August 2026 at 80%, with conditions potentially persisting through November at a 90% likelihood.
Adding to the concern, the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) projects an even higher probability, estimating a 98% chance of El Niño conditions forming during the May–July 2026 period.
El Niño typically brings below-normal rainfall across Southern Africa, raising concerns for rain-fed agriculture, particularly staple grain production in maize-producing provinces.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres has issued a global warning.
“The science is clear, El Niño is arriving on our doorstep in the coming months with 90% certainty. The world must treat it as the urgent climate warning it is,” he stated.
Impact on small-scale farmers
The expected El Niño event could significantly increase production risks for small-scale farmers and agricultural SMEs.
Reduced rainfall and prolonged dry spells may lower yields in rain-fed farming systems, while livestock farmers are likely to face higher feed costs and reduced grazing availability. Water scarcity and erratic rainfall could also disrupt planting cycles and increase reliance on expensive irrigation systems.
South African agricultural bodies have warned that climate variability remains a major threat to agricultural stability, particularly for emerging and small-scale farmers with limited resilience capacity.
Regional coordination and response
South Africa is taking a leading role in regional planning efforts.
Agriculture Minister John Steenhuisen, who also chairs the SADC Committee of Ministers responsible for Agriculture, has called for stronger regional coordination.
He urged the implementation of fertiliser regulations to reduce costs and improve agricultural resilience, warning that SADC “can no longer afford delay”.
He also highlighted the need for improved cross-border animal disease surveillance under a “One Health” approach, particularly to manage outbreaks such as FMD during climate shocks.
The coming months will be critical as global climate systems continue to signal a possible transition into an El Niño phase, with significant implications for food production and agricultural stability across Southern Africa.
