The dairy industry is under sustained pressure from livestock disease outbreaks that are disrupting production.
Industry data compiled by the Bureau for Food and Agricultural Policy (BFAP), drawing on figures linked to the Milk Producers’ Organisation (MPO) shows that more than 90 dairy farms reported cases of Foot-and-mouth disease between January 2024 and January 2026.
The outbreak intensified from late 2025, affecting supply stability across several regions.
More than 210 000 dairy cattle have been impacted, with cumulative losses estimated at around R1 billion.
Average losses per cow are estimated at about R5 000, driven by reduced milk output, rising labour and management costs.
Agricultural economist Dr Johann von Maltitz, warned that prolonged disease could add pressure on farms.
“Prolonged disease pressure could push some family-owned dairy operations beyond financial recovery, with knock-on effects for rural employment and milk supply,” he said.
Small dairy producer on cost pressures
In the North West, small dairy producer Stephen Mtimkulu, co-founder of South Western Dairy, said rising input costs and unstable production conditions are affecting profit.
“Every month the costs go up, but the milk price we get does not increase at the same rate. Feed is the biggest problem. If feed goes up, everything goes up, but we don’t have control over the price we get paid,” Mtimkulu said.
He added that energy instability has become a major cost driver for small producers.
“When there is load-shedding [power outage], we must run diesel generators. That diesel money comes straight out of our profit. Sometimes there is no profit left at all,” Mtimkulu reflected.
Mtimkulu is part of a growing group of small and emerging dairy producers operating within a market dominated by large processors and retailers, where pricing power remains limited at farm level.
Bakers feel the effect of milk inflation
The impact of rising milk prices is also being felt downstream in small food businesses, particularly bakeries that rely on milk as a core ingredient in bread, cakes, and pastries.
Thembani Nenungwi who runs a small bakery in Makhado, Limpopo, said frequent price changes are forcing constant adjustments in the business model.
“Milk is in almost everything we make from dough to cakes. When the price goes up, we can’t absorb it for long. Eventually, we have to increase our prices, and customers don’t always understand,” Nenungwi said.
She added that demand is highly sensitive to even small price increases.
“People are already under pressure. If we increase prices too much, they start buying less or switch to cheaper options like magwinya.”
